Water scarcity as a means of peace

The Middle East Research Center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based in Lebanon has launched"The Blue Peace Report: Rethinking Middle East Water".
The report, published in cooperation with the Strategic Foresight Group, focuses on the problems of water scarcity affecting  Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Israel, and the Palestinian Territories and  recommends to these countries to negotiate the adoption of common policies and guidelines for the sustainable management of  local water resources.
River flows in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan have been depleted by 50 to 90 percent in the last 50 years alone, while the vital Jordan River, which acts as a water source for five of the concerned countries, has decreased its discharge by over 90 percent from 1960.

Middle East map

With consumer requirements predicted to increase to 50-60 percent over the next decade, further pressure will be put on ever-dwindling supplies, he said, the need for setting a diplomatic agenda is crucial.
Some moves toward cooperation have already been made with the bilateral agreement between Syria and Lebanon on the partition of resources for the Orontes and Nahr al-Kabir rivers. The most alarming situation is in Palestine. the calculations made at the time of the Oslo Accords -اتفاقات أوسلو between Palestine and Israel will need to be revised downward.

Water appropriation has created a “high stress” situation where the average Palestinian is left living on less than 30 liters of fresh water a day, with the average Lebanese and Jordanian estimated to be surviving on around 60 liters. This compares to 350 liter per person per day in Israel.

The report proposes installing a region-wide cap on daily consumption where all people would be allowed for consuming no more than 200 liters.

Middle East and MENA region particularly vulnerable to climate change

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) at the forefront of assessing and monitoring global water resources, has developed in collaboration with GRID-Arendal, a Norvegian Research Institute, a map presenting information on water resources use and management for 30 years. This study is particularly useful for policy-makers to implement effective environmental decision-making.

The impacts of human-induced climate change are often considered a future prospect, yet in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), indications of a changing climate are already evident.

Most of the predicted outcomes associated with international climate models are already occurring in the region, compounding existing problems of water scarcity, water pollution,desertification, salinization, and sea-level rise. Since most of the MENA region is arid and hyperarid, small changes in water availability and arable land have significant consequences for human security. Human-induced climate change, through effects on the variability and quality of scarce and degraded water resources,  exacerbates already existing problems affecting urban and rural development, human health, and economic productivity in MENA.

The Belfer Center for Science and international Affairs, at Harvard University, published in September an interesting working paper written by Jeannie Sowers and Erika Weinthal entitled "Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities". 

The document provides information on a number of proactive measures to adapt to climate change that could be encompassed within existing policies for the water and agriculture sectors. These include upgrading and extending water harvesting and storage infrastructures; improving demand management of water and agricultural efficiencies; extending sanitation systems, particularly to rural areas and informal urban areas, to safeguard water supplies and human health; and fostering local and provincial capacities to deal with existing water/agricultural problems.